The Blue Line

Rattling on about the 2004 election

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

B(logs) O(f) T(he) D(ay): The Kerry Bounce

Maybe no one cares about this, but news media, whether it's the New York Times or Fox News, don't seem to understand how to interpret the post-convention polls, so here are some thoughtful takes -- all of which argue that Kerry comes out of the convention more favored in the polls than before the convention and that Kerry's current standing with the electorate spells big trouble for Bush in November.

See William Saleton in Slate and Ruy Teixeira in DonkeyRising for analyses of the polls themselves, and MediaMatters for America for a critique of how Fox News and the New York Times reported recent polls.

Also, see this piece in Slate for an explanation of how pollsters differentiate "likely voters" from registered voters.