It's a close race, but Kerry is in the driver's seat
Despite all the talk about how close this race is, a close look at the polls suggests that Kerry is the candidate with a clear edge.
Why? Four reasons can be found in the polling:
1) Even though the two candidates are running essentially neck and neck, when an incumbent is doing no better than even only three months before election day, the incumbent usually loses. Why? Because undecided voters almost always break for the challenger.
2) Bush's job approval rating is below 50%. Re-elections are largely referenda on the incumbent, and when less than half of the electorate views an incumbent's job performance positively, the main rationale for reelection in the minds of many voters is gone.
3) Bush's "reelect" numbers are below 50%. This is the standard question about whether an incumbent deserves reelection. This question is essentially a way to get undecideds to offer their views on the incumbent and if an incumbent can't get to 50% on this, it is a signal that he won't get 50% of the vote.
4) If you look at state-by-state polling, Kerry is in better shape than Bush, needing only one of six states in which the election appears to be the closest (see earlier post).
But don't take my word for it. Here is the esteemed inside-the-Beltway guru Charlie Cook's take:
"The dynamics of this race do not look good for President Bush. The political mortality rate for well-known, well-defined incumbents tied at 45 percent is extremely high, even if there are 3 percentage points or so that are likely to go to independent and third party candidates. The mortality rate for incumbents with 48 percent job approval ratings is not much better. While this is almost certainly going to be a very, very close race, I'd rather be John Kerry today than George W. Bush."
(From "TO THE RACES: After The Bounce", Charlie Cook, National Journal© National Journal Group Inc.Tuesday, July 13, 2004)
"Last week in this space, I discounted the widely held view that the knotted polling numbers between Bush and Kerry meant that the race itself was even. I argued that given the fact that well-known incumbents with a defined record rarely get many undecided voters -- a quarter to a third at an absolute maximum -- an incumbent in a very stable race essentially tied at 45 percent was actually anything but in an even-money situation. "What you see is what you get" is an old expression for an incumbent's trial heat figures, meaning very few undecided voters fall that way.
"A recent survey by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio (Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates: July 6-7, 1,000 likely voters in 19 battleground states), underscores my point. Fabrizio's poll shows that undecided voters in those states have more pessimistic views than all voters in those states. Just 23 percent of the undecideds say the country is moving in the right direction, compared with 40 percent overall. And just 21 percent say the economy is in excellent or good shape, compared with 33 percent of all voters in those states. Those who are undecided are also slightly more apt to disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president, 46 percent to 40 percent.
This is certainly not to predict that Bush is going to lose, that this race is over or that other events and developments will not have an enormous impact on this race. The point is that this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists. But in a typically Republican fashion, they are too polite and disciplined to talk about it much publicly."
(From "OFF TO THE RACES: Red Alert," Charlie Cook, National Journal© National Journal Group Inc.Tuesday, July 20, 2004)
Why? Four reasons can be found in the polling:
1) Even though the two candidates are running essentially neck and neck, when an incumbent is doing no better than even only three months before election day, the incumbent usually loses. Why? Because undecided voters almost always break for the challenger.
2) Bush's job approval rating is below 50%. Re-elections are largely referenda on the incumbent, and when less than half of the electorate views an incumbent's job performance positively, the main rationale for reelection in the minds of many voters is gone.
3) Bush's "reelect" numbers are below 50%. This is the standard question about whether an incumbent deserves reelection. This question is essentially a way to get undecideds to offer their views on the incumbent and if an incumbent can't get to 50% on this, it is a signal that he won't get 50% of the vote.
4) If you look at state-by-state polling, Kerry is in better shape than Bush, needing only one of six states in which the election appears to be the closest (see earlier post).
But don't take my word for it. Here is the esteemed inside-the-Beltway guru Charlie Cook's take:
"The dynamics of this race do not look good for President Bush. The political mortality rate for well-known, well-defined incumbents tied at 45 percent is extremely high, even if there are 3 percentage points or so that are likely to go to independent and third party candidates. The mortality rate for incumbents with 48 percent job approval ratings is not much better. While this is almost certainly going to be a very, very close race, I'd rather be John Kerry today than George W. Bush."
(From "TO THE RACES: After The Bounce", Charlie Cook, National Journal© National Journal Group Inc.Tuesday, July 13, 2004)
"Last week in this space, I discounted the widely held view that the knotted polling numbers between Bush and Kerry meant that the race itself was even. I argued that given the fact that well-known incumbents with a defined record rarely get many undecided voters -- a quarter to a third at an absolute maximum -- an incumbent in a very stable race essentially tied at 45 percent was actually anything but in an even-money situation. "What you see is what you get" is an old expression for an incumbent's trial heat figures, meaning very few undecided voters fall that way.
"A recent survey by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio (Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates: July 6-7, 1,000 likely voters in 19 battleground states), underscores my point. Fabrizio's poll shows that undecided voters in those states have more pessimistic views than all voters in those states. Just 23 percent of the undecideds say the country is moving in the right direction, compared with 40 percent overall. And just 21 percent say the economy is in excellent or good shape, compared with 33 percent of all voters in those states. Those who are undecided are also slightly more apt to disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president, 46 percent to 40 percent.
This is certainly not to predict that Bush is going to lose, that this race is over or that other events and developments will not have an enormous impact on this race. The point is that this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists. But in a typically Republican fashion, they are too polite and disciplined to talk about it much publicly."
(From "OFF TO THE RACES: Red Alert," Charlie Cook, National Journal© National Journal Group Inc.Tuesday, July 20, 2004)
posted by JFH @ 2:28 PM
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