The Bounce Beneath the Surface

Micky Kaus and his pal Adam Nagourney seem to be in agreement that the lack of a significant Kerry bounce from a very good convention is some kind of a setback for the Democratic ticket.

Well, it would have been if Kerry were at 35% in the polls with a huge slug of undecideds, which is a more typical scenario for a challenger.

Or if the networks had decided to cover the convention. The lack of network coverage of the convention not only depressed viewership, it sent an important signal to the public that the convention was not important.

Or if Kerry had waited until the convention to announce his running mate.

But if you look beneath the surface (candidate head-to-head questions), voter perceptions of Kerry appeared to improve markedly coming out of the convention. And those perceptions will help deepen the commitment of Kerry voters, tilt undecideds toward Kerry, and weaken the commitment of weak Bush voters. Keep in mind that undecideds almost always break in favor of the challenger.

Also, keep in mind that an incumbent who can’t get to 50% in the polls in a two-way race is an incumbent in trouble. A president whose reelect and job approval numbers are below 50% is in trouble.

Kerry leads in almost all national polls, although within the margin of error, and he is in better shape than Bush in state-by-state polls.

Hardly a reason for the Democrats to panic.