State-by-State Polls: Pre-Convention Bounce

A summary of state-by-state polls (pre-convention bounce)

(270 Electoral Votes needed to win)

Kerry leads in 22 states with 261 electoral votes.
Bush leads in 23 states with 195 electoral votes.
The two are tied in 6 states with 82 electoral votes.

Some states have no polling available, but are considered locks for one candidate, so they are included in the above totals.

If we remove the states in which a candidate's lead is within the polling margin of error (but still include the "lock" states):

Kerry leads in 12 states with 174 electoral votes.
Bush leads in 20 states with 166 electoral votes.


This is from the highly respected "Hotline", and is based on a compilation of statewide polls over the last six months. The main caveat here is that there are no recent polls for Washington.

The six Purple states, their EVs and their 2000 EV:
Florida (27) Bush
Iowa (7) Gore
Missouri (11) Bush
Ohio (20) Bush
Washington (11) Gore

The most recent polls from these states, with sponsor, dates, and margin of error:

FL(27)
Bush-Kerry
50-47 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/19-22 +/-4
48-46 Mason-Dixon 7/19-21 +/-4
45-45 Los Angeles Times 7/17-21 +/-4

IA (7)
Bush-Kerry
47-47 American Research Group 7/26-28 +/-4

MO (11)
Bush-Kerry
44-48 Research 2000 7/20-22 +/-3.5
48-48 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/19-22 +/-5
44-46 Market Research 7/13-20 +/-4

OH (20)
Bush-Kerry
47-44 Columbus Dispatch 7/14-23 +/-2
45-51 CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/19-22 +/-4
45-47 American Research Group 7/20-22 +/-4

WA (11)
Bush-Kerry
43-43 Moore Information (R) 6/23-24 +/-4
45-44 Moore Information (R) 6/9-11 +/-4
42-46 Mason-Dixon 6/9-11 +/-4