For Now, Edwards Should Stay in the Race
Last night’s primaries in Tennessee and Virginia confirmed that, by staying in the race for an extra week, Wesley Clark, actually helped John Kerry take a bigger step toward the nomination than Kerry otherwise would have. Clark’s narrow win over Edwards in Oklahoma last week kept the general in the race. Had Clark lost Oklahoma he would have probably dropped out of the race and Edwards would have faced Kerry yesterday in what would have been essentially a two-man race in Tennessee and Virginia. Considering how Edwards fared yesterday with Clark remaining in the race, had Clark pulled out, Edwards might well have won Tennessee and run a very close second in Virginia. Then he could have more plausibly gone to Wisconsin and on through Super Tuesday as the main alternative to Kerry. And because Edwards seems to grow on people once they see him, he might have at least slowed Kerry’s momentum-aided sprint to the nomination by winning some later primaries.
But that’s what might have been. What is, is that Clark is only now withdrawing from the race, and, oh yeah, I almost forgot, there is also the matter of Howard Dean. Kerry should want Edwards to stay in the race at least as long as Dean remains, because if Dean gets Kerry into a two-man race, you can bet that the good doctor will go on the offensive against Kerry and Dean’s status as “last man standing” will be elevated in the media, thus amplifying his attacks on Kerry. With Edwards in the race as a more proven vote-getter and clearly the more preferred alternative, Dean is relegated to almost sideshow status (“Meanwhile, Howard Dean is still on the trail …”). For his part, Edwards continues to do his thing, which does not include any serious attacks on Kerry. So there is no downside for either Edwards or Kerry for Edwards to stay in the race for the time being.
There is, of course, some risk that Edwards could start actually beating Kerry, the way Jerry Brown won late primaries against both Bill Clinton in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 after the two future presidents had already sewn up their nominations. But more likely, Edwards will turn in respectable showings and will eventually step aside.
Indeed, Edwards is, more or less, auditioning for the future right now. He is leaving the Senate, so this is the only exposure he is getting on the big-time political stage. Assuming he doesn’t overstay his welcome, he could be near the top of Kerry’s VP list, or he could end up as a clear front-runner for 2008 if Bush gets reelected.
But that’s what might have been. What is, is that Clark is only now withdrawing from the race, and, oh yeah, I almost forgot, there is also the matter of Howard Dean. Kerry should want Edwards to stay in the race at least as long as Dean remains, because if Dean gets Kerry into a two-man race, you can bet that the good doctor will go on the offensive against Kerry and Dean’s status as “last man standing” will be elevated in the media, thus amplifying his attacks on Kerry. With Edwards in the race as a more proven vote-getter and clearly the more preferred alternative, Dean is relegated to almost sideshow status (“Meanwhile, Howard Dean is still on the trail …”). For his part, Edwards continues to do his thing, which does not include any serious attacks on Kerry. So there is no downside for either Edwards or Kerry for Edwards to stay in the race for the time being.
There is, of course, some risk that Edwards could start actually beating Kerry, the way Jerry Brown won late primaries against both Bill Clinton in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 after the two future presidents had already sewn up their nominations. But more likely, Edwards will turn in respectable showings and will eventually step aside.
Indeed, Edwards is, more or less, auditioning for the future right now. He is leaving the Senate, so this is the only exposure he is getting on the big-time political stage. Assuming he doesn’t overstay his welcome, he could be near the top of Kerry’s VP list, or he could end up as a clear front-runner for 2008 if Bush gets reelected.
posted by JFH @ 7:49 AM
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