The Latest Polls: Kerry Had Better Watch His Back; Lieberman Could Do Some Damage in the Middle of the Pack
OK, so the pollsters don't really know what's going on in New Hampshire, because independents can vote in the Democratic primary and it's been twenty years since there has been a contested Republican primary, so independents have no choice but to vote Democratic if they indeed choose to vote. New Hampshire voters have also prided themselves on making last-minutes choices and throwing the political establishment curve balls, so with that as background, the latest polls:
Most seem to show Kerry with a solid lead over Dean, about 35% for Kerry vs. around 20% for Dean, but the big question is whether Dean will make a last-minute surge. Clark seems to be fading; Edwards ascending, but not all that much. Lieberman coming up a little.
Kerry leads Dean by only 30% to 23% in the latest Zogby tracking poll, with Dean possibly closing the gap. That poll is an average of three nights of polling, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. In the previous poll, Kerry led 31-22, so Dean cut Kerry’s lead. Zogby reports that the Saturday night only portion of the poll showed Kerry leading 28-25. The other thing to note about the poll is that its Thursday portion may have been too early to track reactions to the debate and to Dean’s media onslaught. So, it would not be surprising to see Kerry and Dean locked in a very tight race come Monday, when the Fri-Sat-Sun tracking poll is released.
Clark, meanwhile, is showing signs of weakness, dropping a couple of points since Iowa and certainly not appearing to generate any positive movement. It makes sense because he was positioned as the alternative-to-Dean candidate based on assumption that Dean would win big in Iowa.
Edwards is holding his support, with perhaps some slight evidence of movement up, while Lieberman is doing the same thing. Perhaps impish Joe will surprise by offing Clark. Remember, he is a New Englander; he’s been living in New Hampshire; he is a conservative alternative, and he evinced such genial good cheer in the Thursday debates. Contrary New Hampshire voters may just decide to give him a boost.
As for Dean, perhaps he becomes “the comeback kid” just by finishing a strong second; shades of Bill Clinton in 1992.
For another set of poll results, check out the American Research Group. Same trends, but with actual numbers showing Kerry farther ahead. According to the Times article mentioned above, though, ARG was way off on New Hampshire in 2000.
Most seem to show Kerry with a solid lead over Dean, about 35% for Kerry vs. around 20% for Dean, but the big question is whether Dean will make a last-minute surge. Clark seems to be fading; Edwards ascending, but not all that much. Lieberman coming up a little.
Kerry leads Dean by only 30% to 23% in the latest Zogby tracking poll, with Dean possibly closing the gap. That poll is an average of three nights of polling, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. In the previous poll, Kerry led 31-22, so Dean cut Kerry’s lead. Zogby reports that the Saturday night only portion of the poll showed Kerry leading 28-25. The other thing to note about the poll is that its Thursday portion may have been too early to track reactions to the debate and to Dean’s media onslaught. So, it would not be surprising to see Kerry and Dean locked in a very tight race come Monday, when the Fri-Sat-Sun tracking poll is released.
Clark, meanwhile, is showing signs of weakness, dropping a couple of points since Iowa and certainly not appearing to generate any positive movement. It makes sense because he was positioned as the alternative-to-Dean candidate based on assumption that Dean would win big in Iowa.
Edwards is holding his support, with perhaps some slight evidence of movement up, while Lieberman is doing the same thing. Perhaps impish Joe will surprise by offing Clark. Remember, he is a New Englander; he’s been living in New Hampshire; he is a conservative alternative, and he evinced such genial good cheer in the Thursday debates. Contrary New Hampshire voters may just decide to give him a boost.
As for Dean, perhaps he becomes “the comeback kid” just by finishing a strong second; shades of Bill Clinton in 1992.
For another set of poll results, check out the American Research Group. Same trends, but with actual numbers showing Kerry farther ahead. According to the Times article mentioned above, though, ARG was way off on New Hampshire in 2000.
posted by JFH @ 10:48 PM
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