The Latest Polls: Kerry Poised for Sweeping Victory
Based on tracking polls in the four most significant states holding primaries tomorrow, it looks like Kerry will easily retain his front-runner status, and continue towards “unstoppable” status. In Missouri, the biggest prize, he has a commanding lead over Edwards 46%-15%, with Clark and Dean in single digits. As a fall battleground state, Missouri helps (re-)prove Kerry’s case that he is the most electable. The media might discount Missouri somewhat because it has only been “in play” for a couple of week’s due to the departure from the race of native son Gephardt.
Look at Arizona as sort of a back-up of Missouri, because it, too, could become a battleground state in November with the continued influx of Hispanics and West Coast liberals to the state. Kerry leads Clark 32%-21%.
In South Carolina, John Edwards leads Kerry 30%-23%, with Clark at 12% and Sharpton at 10%. If Edwards wins, he will try to stay in the race, although it’s doubtful that a South Carolina win will solve his money problems. But if Kerry finishes an easy and strong second to Edwards, it again helps him make the case that he can run well in the South because, after all, Edwards was born in the state.
Look at Oklahoma as sort of a back-up of South Carolina. Clark leads Kerry 25%-23%, with Edwards at 18%. If Kerry finishes in that ballpark or even a close third, it would help him make his case that he has vote-getting appeal (at least among Democrats) in the South.
I actually don’t think the Democrats need to win a single southern state in November, except for Florida, but by running well in South Carolina and Oklahoma, Kerry can help negate the arguments made by Edwards and Clark that the Democrats need a southerner in order to win in November.
And whatever happened to Howard Dean? He isn’t even competing this week in the apparent hope that by sitting on the sidelines, he can wait for Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman to leave the race so that he can stand mano-a-mano with Kerry later on. But this is a losing proposition, given the logic of the nominating process. Dean may indeed end up with some decent showings in later primaries, as Kerry-remorse sets in, but no way will it be enough to seriously affect the outcome.
But then, who knows in American politics these days? Here is a listing of all the anti-Kerry strategies.
Look at Arizona as sort of a back-up of Missouri, because it, too, could become a battleground state in November with the continued influx of Hispanics and West Coast liberals to the state. Kerry leads Clark 32%-21%.
In South Carolina, John Edwards leads Kerry 30%-23%, with Clark at 12% and Sharpton at 10%. If Edwards wins, he will try to stay in the race, although it’s doubtful that a South Carolina win will solve his money problems. But if Kerry finishes an easy and strong second to Edwards, it again helps him make the case that he can run well in the South because, after all, Edwards was born in the state.
Look at Oklahoma as sort of a back-up of South Carolina. Clark leads Kerry 25%-23%, with Edwards at 18%. If Kerry finishes in that ballpark or even a close third, it would help him make his case that he has vote-getting appeal (at least among Democrats) in the South.
I actually don’t think the Democrats need to win a single southern state in November, except for Florida, but by running well in South Carolina and Oklahoma, Kerry can help negate the arguments made by Edwards and Clark that the Democrats need a southerner in order to win in November.
And whatever happened to Howard Dean? He isn’t even competing this week in the apparent hope that by sitting on the sidelines, he can wait for Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman to leave the race so that he can stand mano-a-mano with Kerry later on. But this is a losing proposition, given the logic of the nominating process. Dean may indeed end up with some decent showings in later primaries, as Kerry-remorse sets in, but no way will it be enough to seriously affect the outcome.
But then, who knows in American politics these days? Here is a listing of all the anti-Kerry strategies.
posted by JFH @ 7:36 AM
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