The Blue Line

Rattling on about the 2004 election

Monday, January 26, 2004

The Latest Polls: Zogby says Dean Closing In on Kerry

Continuing the trend reported yesterday, Zogby’s latest tracking poll has Dean within three points of Kerry. The catch is that Zogby has tried to allocate the last-minute undecideds based on their responses to a question about which candidate they are leaning toward supporting. He finds 13% undecided, but after the leaners are apportioned to candidates, the undecideds are down to 3%. This all points to the fact that Dean hasn’t closed the deal with a number of undecided voters, but he is trending upward, perhaps headed toward a Clintonesque second-place “Comeback Kid” designation.

Then there is the race for third place. If Clark loses to Edwards, his candidacy could be all but over, even though he will soldier on to the Southern and Midwestern states. Lieberman could be the spoiler. He has been appealing to independents, who can vote in the primary if they are so moved. If Lieberman also beats Clark, then the general would be in big trouble.