The “Prove It” Phase: Kerry Will Roll On

Now that we are finished with Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign for the Democratic nomination has moved to the “Prove It” stage, whereby Sen. John Kerry must “prove” his widely acknowledged front-runner status by doing well in the seven states that hold their primaries on February 3rd. If he does that, then the nomination race will be over. And if history is a guide, he will do it. Since Iowa took its place alongside New Hampshire as a first-in-the-nation contest, no candidate who has won both of those states has ever been denied the nomination. (There have been several contests where no clear front-runner has emerged from Iowa-New Hampshire, but in every one of those cases the field has been effectively winnowed to two -- Bush-McCain in 2000, Tsongas-Clinton in 1992, Mondale-Hart in 1984, to name a few -- and in every one of those cases, the nomination contest was effectively determined in the next wave of primaries – always in favor of the best-financed candidate.)

Can Kerry win this week? I’d say he’s a shoo-in. Capitalizing on the media focus and new-found money that comes with his front-runner status, only Kerry can mount a national campaign, hitting all of the February 3rd states, and with Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman all vying for the moderate vote, Kerry is all but guaranteed to do well enough that he will at least maintain his front-runner status. In South Carolina, Edwards has to win, but Kerry, with the endorsement of the state’s most prominent black politician and former Sen. Hollings, is poised to do very well, and Clark will eat into Edwards’ support somewhat. A strong second place for Kerry in South Carolina will be enough. It is most likely Missouri that will really “prove it” for Kerry. The state is bigger and more diverse than any of the other states voting next week, and it is wide open now that Gephardt is out of the race. Most importantly, Missouri is also a general election battleground state. If Kerry wins Missouri, case closed on the electability question.