The Latest Polls: Zogby Back in the Fold
While the Zogby poll had shown a tightening race through Sunday, it reverted to the mean on Monday, with results very similar to every other tracking poll, much to the chagrin of polling junkies on the Internet. Zogby’s results, however, point to a last-minute break to Kerry as New Hampshirites supposedly focus in on the electability issue.
Nearly every other poll has the same current standings, but have been more consistent all along, and they are showing continuing growth in Dean support, although it doesn’t look like it’s a strong enough trend for Dean to pull off an upset. The American Research Group reports fairly significant movement to Dean, but Kerry’s support holding.
Kerry is generally in the high 30s, with Dean in the mid 20s, and Edwards trending ahead of Clark and Lieberman in the mid-teens. Clark is on a downtrend, perhaps heading for single-digits, while Lieberman seems to be holding steady at high single digits.
If that basic order holds tonight, and Kerry wins decisively, there all of the sudden will be a lot of talk about the inevitability of John Kerry and the end of Howard Dean (the “2003” candidate). And for all the pre-New Hampshire speculation of a long nominating contest, it may well be over, practically speaking, after next week. There’s no reason for Dean to quit just yet if he finishes a weak second, but there doesn’t seem to be a rationale for how he can climb above the electability ceiling that voters appear to be building above him.
There also will be talk of the end of Wes Clark, although he too seems likely to stay in the race for another week, perhaps in a death struggle with John Edwards for the “Anybody But Kerry” crowd. But if Dean and Clark both stay in for another week, Dean will get his 20% or so, and Clark will split votes with Edwards, leaving Kerry again the victor in at least some of next week’s contests. And those victories will “prove” that Kerry has broader geographical appeal and they will hand Kerry the nomination.
Edwards’ only hope is for Clark to do so poorly in New Hampshire that the general drops out of the race or is so totally written off by the media that he becomes irrelevant. With Dean still in but a widely acknowledged also-ran, and with Lieberman out, which he likely will be after New Hampshire, that would set up essentially a two-man contest between Kerry and Edwards. And given the contrast between Kerry, who can be dull and condescending, and Edwards, who is exciting, likeable, and very smart, the tables could turn.
The other thing that could happen is that Dean could end up very close to Kerry and keep alive his own “Comeback Kid” scenario. That would roil the race because Edwards and Clark would continue to run hard in next week’s primaries, sensing vulnerability in both the putative front-runners.
Nearly every other poll has the same current standings, but have been more consistent all along, and they are showing continuing growth in Dean support, although it doesn’t look like it’s a strong enough trend for Dean to pull off an upset. The American Research Group reports fairly significant movement to Dean, but Kerry’s support holding.
Kerry is generally in the high 30s, with Dean in the mid 20s, and Edwards trending ahead of Clark and Lieberman in the mid-teens. Clark is on a downtrend, perhaps heading for single-digits, while Lieberman seems to be holding steady at high single digits.
If that basic order holds tonight, and Kerry wins decisively, there all of the sudden will be a lot of talk about the inevitability of John Kerry and the end of Howard Dean (the “2003” candidate). And for all the pre-New Hampshire speculation of a long nominating contest, it may well be over, practically speaking, after next week. There’s no reason for Dean to quit just yet if he finishes a weak second, but there doesn’t seem to be a rationale for how he can climb above the electability ceiling that voters appear to be building above him.
There also will be talk of the end of Wes Clark, although he too seems likely to stay in the race for another week, perhaps in a death struggle with John Edwards for the “Anybody But Kerry” crowd. But if Dean and Clark both stay in for another week, Dean will get his 20% or so, and Clark will split votes with Edwards, leaving Kerry again the victor in at least some of next week’s contests. And those victories will “prove” that Kerry has broader geographical appeal and they will hand Kerry the nomination.
Edwards’ only hope is for Clark to do so poorly in New Hampshire that the general drops out of the race or is so totally written off by the media that he becomes irrelevant. With Dean still in but a widely acknowledged also-ran, and with Lieberman out, which he likely will be after New Hampshire, that would set up essentially a two-man contest between Kerry and Edwards. And given the contrast between Kerry, who can be dull and condescending, and Edwards, who is exciting, likeable, and very smart, the tables could turn.
The other thing that could happen is that Dean could end up very close to Kerry and keep alive his own “Comeback Kid” scenario. That would roil the race because Edwards and Clark would continue to run hard in next week’s primaries, sensing vulnerability in both the putative front-runners.
posted by JFH @ 4:31 PM
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