OK, so who’s going to win this thing?

from Jon

This week’s drumbeat of bad news out of Iraq will serve to fire up the Democratic base, turn out new voters, and sway the few remaining undecideds predominantly to Kerry. While the Republicans will do okay on turnout, the final week so far has been pretty demoralizing, and their voter suppression efforts won't be enough to send the election into the courts.

So, I predict Kerry wins nationally 52% to 48%, with 301 EVs.

Kerry wins Gore states – Wisconsin + New Hampshire + Ohio + Florida.