The Polls: Nine days to go
from JFH
Check out Professor Alan Abramowitz' summary of the race. His conclusion: "[B]ased on this analysis of recent polls in the battleground states, if either candidate has a slight edge, it's John Kerry. And that's without even factoring in the expected late movement of undecided voters to Kerry.
RealClearPolitics' Battleground Summary shows Bush leading in averaged recent state-by-state polls. The EC count would be Bush 306-232. But wait! Bush's average lead in both Florida and Ohio is less than one point, and it is exactly one point in Minnesota. (Take away Florida and Minnesota from RCP's count and we get another tie scenario!) Take away all three, given the expected break of undecideds toward Kerry, and Kerry wins 289-249.
According to RCP, Bush leads by three points in Iowa and two in Wisconsin, two Gore states that are still winnable for Kerry. And there was an interesting poll that came out yesterday in Arkansas, showing the candidates tied.
On average, Bush is at 48% or lower in FL, OH, WI, IA, MN, and NM. And the only Battleground state in which Bush hits 50% is Missouri.
These are not good numbers for an incumbent this close to Election Day.
This week's news frame isn't good, either. Bush made another off-message comment about whether we can win the war on terror yesterday, and in Iraq, freshly minted Iraqi security forces were ambushed and executed, and we find that a huge cache of expolosives has fallen into the hands of insurgents and terrorists. The latter is a near-perfect real world symbol in the closing days of the campaign of the Administration's bungling of Iraq AND the war on terror.
Oh and by the way, the Big Dog is going to hit the campaign trail for Kerry today.
Check out Professor Alan Abramowitz' summary of the race. His conclusion: "[B]ased on this analysis of recent polls in the battleground states, if either candidate has a slight edge, it's John Kerry. And that's without even factoring in the expected late movement of undecided voters to Kerry.
RealClearPolitics' Battleground Summary shows Bush leading in averaged recent state-by-state polls. The EC count would be Bush 306-232. But wait! Bush's average lead in both Florida and Ohio is less than one point, and it is exactly one point in Minnesota. (Take away Florida and Minnesota from RCP's count and we get another tie scenario!) Take away all three, given the expected break of undecideds toward Kerry, and Kerry wins 289-249.
According to RCP, Bush leads by three points in Iowa and two in Wisconsin, two Gore states that are still winnable for Kerry. And there was an interesting poll that came out yesterday in Arkansas, showing the candidates tied.
On average, Bush is at 48% or lower in FL, OH, WI, IA, MN, and NM. And the only Battleground state in which Bush hits 50% is Missouri.
These are not good numbers for an incumbent this close to Election Day.
This week's news frame isn't good, either. Bush made another off-message comment about whether we can win the war on terror yesterday, and in Iraq, freshly minted Iraqi security forces were ambushed and executed, and we find that a huge cache of expolosives has fallen into the hands of insurgents and terrorists. The latter is a near-perfect real world symbol in the closing days of the campaign of the Administration's bungling of Iraq AND the war on terror.
Oh and by the way, the Big Dog is going to hit the campaign trail for Kerry today.
posted by JFH @ 7:25 AM
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