NYT and WaPo: Polls not looking good for W.

From JFH

Sunday's WaPo lede:

President Bush turned his Marine One chopper into a campaign prop Saturday and used it to drop in on huge crowds at three stadiums around Florida, at a time of concern in his campaign about his failure to gain a decisive lead in the most crucial battlegrounds.

GOP officials who talked to Bush-Cheney campaign leaders said the leaders have grown more worried about Ohio, Florida and other key states where Bush lacks a lead with just 10 days until the election. One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."

The Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls have indicated, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error -- a statistical tie.

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. "And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

The Sunday NYT reports that the campaigns are agreed on the final eleven battleground states; we’ll just call them the Big Ten (get it?).

Bush 2000 States
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
New Hampshire (4)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)

Gore 2000 States
Pennsylvania (21)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)

Ok, so the Times says “analysts and aides to both campaigns say Mr. Kerry has the best chance of winning New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida.” I’ll buy that. Kerry has led in NH most of the year, but its EVs are likely to be inconsequential. He has been in the lead in Ohio since the debates and is neck and neck in Florida. (But if “neck and neck” lasts for another week, the tie will likely go to Kerry on Election Day, because last-minute deciders almost always break for the challenger.)

Of the Gore states, the Times says “analysts and aides said Mr. Bush has the best chance of winning Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.” OK, for the sake of argument, let’s buy that, too. Bush has led in Iowa and Wisconsin fairly consistently, although very narrowly – and the President, on average, hasn’t polled at the 50% mark in either state. New Mexico hasn’t been polled as extensively, but the candidates have each led in more than one recent poll. I don’t think anyone buys Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Minnesota breaking for Bush. But the Times fails to consider the implications of its analysis: If all turns out the way “analysts and aides” from both campaign currently see it: KERRY WINS 289-249!