The First Debate: Kerry Scores a Big Win
For nearly a month after Kerry endured the Swift Boat Vets attacks and the vicious follow-ups at the GOP convention, the story had been that “the sky is falling” on Kerry. It was an exaggeration from Day One, a typical media overstretch coming from the tendency to focus on the horse race, on incorrect assumptions about national polls, and on the views of campaign insiders.
Bush did take the lead in the polls after the GOP convention, but not by nearly as much as news media conventional wisdom made it seem. On average, Bush went from down two or three points to up by about four points in national polls – hardly a big jump coming after a convention. Moreover, national polls are all but meaningless in a year when we already know how most states will cast their electoral votes. The focus should be on the handful of swing states that will decide the election. In those states, and therefore in the projected Electoral College, Bush also opened a lead, but an extremely narrow one, not even as large as his four-point national lead might imply. In addition, in nearly every battleground state (and in national polls, for that matter), Bush failed to reach the 50% mark, which, for an incumbent, is a better predictor of the vote on Election Day than is the spread between the candidates. (Read this piece for an explanation of why an incumbent who can't break 50% in the polls is in trouble even if he is ahead.)
But campaign insiders started whispering about how poorly the Kerry campaign responded to the Swift Boat Vet attacks and openly worried about its ability to withstand further search-and-destroy missions that were sure to come from Bush’s Gen. Rove. Thus, the story heading into last Thursday’s debate was that it was Kerry’s last chance, which was really a stretch, and had Kerry done poorly in the debate, the whole story could have become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which would have gone down in campaign annals as the Dukakisization of John Kerry.
Alas, it didn’t happen. Kerry won the first debate more decisively than anyone since I can remember – and I have seen every debate since 1976. There are several instances where it was clear after the fact that one candidate had bettered another – Ford’s 1976 comment that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe comes to mind – but Thursday night, on stage, the difference between the two candidates on both style and substance was stunning. Kerry had the demeanor of a president; he commanded the stage. Bush looked small and mean, and acted like he didn’t want to be there. Kerry’s answers were succinct and mostly on point; Bush rambled until he could figure out a way to segue into his basic talking points, which he delivered in rote fashion and repeated until the red light mercifully went off, eliciting an almost visible expression of relief on the President’s sour face.
It was such a boffo performance by Kerry that the president’s spin machine couldn’t get any traction; after all, sixty million people saw the debate and could not have come to any conclusion other than that Kerry won the debate. You can fool millions of people some of the time, but you can’t fool a majority of sixty million people about who won that debate.
So now, voila! Kerry appears to be back up in the polls; Bush remains below 50% nationally and in nearly every battleground state; Democrats are fired up; and this race should be a sprint to the finish. The wild card, however, is the next couple of debates. Can Bush shake the dominant perception that came out of the first one? It hasn’t happened very often in debates past. Bush the Elder never got any better as the 1992 debates went on. Al Gore more or less moved even with Bush in the later 2000 debates, but that didn’t shake the perception that Bush did better in the debates because he won the first one. Maybe the president will do better now that he is back in the underdog role. I doubt it. Kerry may not be as likeable as Bill Clinton, but he is as quick on his feet. Moreover, the first debate was the one the president wanted – on foreign policy and national security. The next two debates – a town meeting free-for-all and a domestic policy debate – would appear to be even more fertile ground for Kerry, although the president may be able to show his folksy side in the town-meeting debate on Friday. He needs to; otherwise, I think he’s a goner.
Bush did take the lead in the polls after the GOP convention, but not by nearly as much as news media conventional wisdom made it seem. On average, Bush went from down two or three points to up by about four points in national polls – hardly a big jump coming after a convention. Moreover, national polls are all but meaningless in a year when we already know how most states will cast their electoral votes. The focus should be on the handful of swing states that will decide the election. In those states, and therefore in the projected Electoral College, Bush also opened a lead, but an extremely narrow one, not even as large as his four-point national lead might imply. In addition, in nearly every battleground state (and in national polls, for that matter), Bush failed to reach the 50% mark, which, for an incumbent, is a better predictor of the vote on Election Day than is the spread between the candidates. (Read this piece for an explanation of why an incumbent who can't break 50% in the polls is in trouble even if he is ahead.)
But campaign insiders started whispering about how poorly the Kerry campaign responded to the Swift Boat Vet attacks and openly worried about its ability to withstand further search-and-destroy missions that were sure to come from Bush’s Gen. Rove. Thus, the story heading into last Thursday’s debate was that it was Kerry’s last chance, which was really a stretch, and had Kerry done poorly in the debate, the whole story could have become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which would have gone down in campaign annals as the Dukakisization of John Kerry.
Alas, it didn’t happen. Kerry won the first debate more decisively than anyone since I can remember – and I have seen every debate since 1976. There are several instances where it was clear after the fact that one candidate had bettered another – Ford’s 1976 comment that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe comes to mind – but Thursday night, on stage, the difference between the two candidates on both style and substance was stunning. Kerry had the demeanor of a president; he commanded the stage. Bush looked small and mean, and acted like he didn’t want to be there. Kerry’s answers were succinct and mostly on point; Bush rambled until he could figure out a way to segue into his basic talking points, which he delivered in rote fashion and repeated until the red light mercifully went off, eliciting an almost visible expression of relief on the President’s sour face.
It was such a boffo performance by Kerry that the president’s spin machine couldn’t get any traction; after all, sixty million people saw the debate and could not have come to any conclusion other than that Kerry won the debate. You can fool millions of people some of the time, but you can’t fool a majority of sixty million people about who won that debate.
So now, voila! Kerry appears to be back up in the polls; Bush remains below 50% nationally and in nearly every battleground state; Democrats are fired up; and this race should be a sprint to the finish. The wild card, however, is the next couple of debates. Can Bush shake the dominant perception that came out of the first one? It hasn’t happened very often in debates past. Bush the Elder never got any better as the 1992 debates went on. Al Gore more or less moved even with Bush in the later 2000 debates, but that didn’t shake the perception that Bush did better in the debates because he won the first one. Maybe the president will do better now that he is back in the underdog role. I doubt it. Kerry may not be as likeable as Bill Clinton, but he is as quick on his feet. Moreover, the first debate was the one the president wanted – on foreign policy and national security. The next two debates – a town meeting free-for-all and a domestic policy debate – would appear to be even more fertile ground for Kerry, although the president may be able to show his folksy side in the town-meeting debate on Friday. He needs to; otherwise, I think he’s a goner.
posted by JFH @ 10:23 PM
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