The Blue Line

Rattling on about the 2004 election

Monday, September 27, 2004

ARG Polls released in all fifty states

Kerry shows amazing resilience in the polls.

Here is the ARG “executive summary”:
>George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.


>Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
>Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.

>Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
>Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.

>Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.

>Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
>Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.