Why Bush will win the first debate
I hope I’m wrong, but Bush is likely to win the first debate, because:
As the candidates prepare for the first debate, Bush is undoubtedly being told simply to “be himself,” while Kerry is probably being told “not” to be himself, which is to say a boring windbag.
[Harry Shearer is probably not too far off the mark in speculating that during his debate prep Kerry is receiving electric shocks every time he uses a complex sentence. (Click here for Harry Shearer's Le Show archive, but last night's show isn't there as of this posting.)]
It’s hard for a candidate to come off as something he’s not under the glare of live television. Remember the strange and different versions of Al Gore we saw in 2000’s debates?
But let’s say Bush doesn’t fare so well in the debate itself. Many more voters learn about what happened in a debate from subsequent media coverage. Unless Bush does something truly bizarre, you can bet that the right-wing media spin machine will be totally “on message” that Bush won the debate. First you have the President’s own spinners, who are sure to be more cohesively on message than Kerry’s spinners. Second, you have the conservative commentators and pundits who have a knack for closing ranks when it comes to beating up on liberals, who will farm out onto the networks and write their newspaper columns in what seems certain to be a chorus of rave reviews. And finally, you will have the Fox News and conservative radio outlets directly feeding the Bush spin to the masses.
As the candidates prepare for the first debate, Bush is undoubtedly being told simply to “be himself,” while Kerry is probably being told “not” to be himself, which is to say a boring windbag.
[Harry Shearer is probably not too far off the mark in speculating that during his debate prep Kerry is receiving electric shocks every time he uses a complex sentence. (Click here for Harry Shearer's Le Show archive, but last night's show isn't there as of this posting.)]
It’s hard for a candidate to come off as something he’s not under the glare of live television. Remember the strange and different versions of Al Gore we saw in 2000’s debates?
But let’s say Bush doesn’t fare so well in the debate itself. Many more voters learn about what happened in a debate from subsequent media coverage. Unless Bush does something truly bizarre, you can bet that the right-wing media spin machine will be totally “on message” that Bush won the debate. First you have the President’s own spinners, who are sure to be more cohesively on message than Kerry’s spinners. Second, you have the conservative commentators and pundits who have a knack for closing ranks when it comes to beating up on liberals, who will farm out onto the networks and write their newspaper columns in what seems certain to be a chorus of rave reviews. And finally, you will have the Fox News and conservative radio outlets directly feeding the Bush spin to the masses.
posted by JFH @ 7:32 AM
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