The Polls This Week
The simplest formula for Kerry to win the White House is to take the Gore-2000 states plus ten additional electoral votes.
Executive Summary:
1. Kerry is currently trailing in two Gore states -- Wisconsin (10 EV) and Iowa (7) -- both of which he needs to win unless he wins Florida.
2. Kerry’s best shot to win this election is Florida (27), because he could afford to drop Wisconsin and Iowa and still win.
3. Alternatively, Kerry needs to hold all the Gore states, then pick off some combination of New Hampshire, Colorado, and Arkansas to win.
4. Kerry should still fight in Ohio, though, because he’s within striking distance there and a win would give him considerably more flexibility.
5. There seems to be ample reason to downplay Missouri and Nevada, and to emphasize Arkansas and Colorado, while also tending to New Hampshire, where Kerry's lead is narrower than it has been all year.
Gore States where Kerry is vulnerable:
1. Wisconsin (10 EV): Bush leads in four of six polls released between 9/13 and 9/21, including the earliest (Strategic Vision) and the latest (Badger State). In the latter, Bush leads by an implausible 52%-38%. Kerry leads in one poll (Zobgy) and the candidates were tied in the other (American Research Group). All polls, except the Badger State are within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 47.8% Kerry 44.2% undecided/other 8%
Bottom Line: Bush holds a narrow lead here (3.6 points even with the Badger State poll included), but remains below 50%, which is usually a sign of trouble for an incumbent this late in the game, and there are 8% still apparently undecided or voting for some other candidate.
2. Iowa (7 EV): Bush leads in six of seven polls released between 9/14 and 9/23, including the earliest (Rasmussen) and the latest (Survey USA). There are no real outliers among the seven polls, and all are within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 47.9% Kerry 45.7 undecided/other 6.4%
Bottom Line: Bush holds a narrow lead (averaging 2.2 points), but the same analysis holds here as in Wisconsin. Kerry is a bit closer, but there are fewer undecideds.
3. Pennsylvania (21 EV): In four polls released between 9/15 and 9/22, Kerry leads them all.
On average: Kerry 48.5% Bush 46% undecided/other 5.5%
Bottom Line: After an increase in Bush support here, Kerry seems to have stabilized and remains in the lead.
4. Oregon (7 EV): Kerry leads in two of three polls released between 9/13 and 9/22, although Bush leads in the most recent (Survey USA). Zogby has Kerry leading by 12 points, outside the margin of error.
On average: Kerry 49.3% Bush 45% undecided/other 5.7%
Bottom Line: Oregon has gotten closer, but Kerry is in good shape at this point.
5. Maine (4 EV): In three polls released between 9/9 and 9/23, the candidates each lead in one and they are tied in the third. Bush, however, holds a one-point lead in the latest (Survey USA) poll.
On average: Kerry 45.7% Bush 44.7 undecided/other 9.6%
Bottom Line: Maine appears to have gotten very close, but there isn’t a lot of polling here, and with nearly 10 percent still undecided, I would expect Kerry to pull this one out.
6. Maryland (10 EV): In two polls released between 9/17 and 9/20, Bush led in one (Survey USA) and the candidates were tied in the other (Mason-Dixon).
On average: Bush 47.5% Kerry 45.5% undecided/other 7%
Bottom Line: Not a lot of polling here, but it’s hard to argue with two recent polls. That said, the same general analysis applies here – Bush under 50%, undecideds should break for Kerry. But, frankly, if Kerry can’t win in Maryland, there are going to be several other Blue States that he loses, too.
7. New Jersey (15 EV): Each candidate leads in one of the two polls released between 9/15 and 9/17.
On average: Bush 46% Kerry 46% undecided/other 8%
Bottom Line: The state’s gubernatorial scandal involving a Democrat and the proximity to the GOP convention in New York are said to be two factors that may be making New Jersey close. Kerry should be able to win back enough to take this state. Like Maryland, if he loses New Jersey he’s going to be losing a lot of Blue States.
OK? So, let’s say Kerry holds the Gore states, where does he get the additional ten electoral votes to get him to 270?
Bush-2000 States where Bush is vulnerable:
1. Florida (27 EV): This is the big kahuna, and it couldn’t be closer. In four polls released between 9/20 and 9/22, the candidates are within two points of each other.
On average: Bush 47.3% Kerry 46.8% undecided/other 5.9%
Bottom Line: If Kerry wins Florida, he wins. Even if Bush were to take Wisconsin and Iowa, a Kerry win in Florida would equal exactly 270 electoral votes! For Bush, Florida is necessary but not sufficient. He must also hold all but 10 EV-worth of the Red States.
2. New Hampshire (4 EV): In two polls released 9/17, Bush leads in one (ARG) and Kerry in the other (Zogby). Prior to that, Kerry has led in New Hampshire fairly consistently, and remember, Bush won the state in 2000 by less than the Nader vote.
On average: Kerry 46.5% Bush 46% undecided/other 7.5%
Bottom Line: The state looks very close once again, but next-door neighbor Kerry has an excellent shot at winning it.
3. Colorado (9 EV): This is a state that has traditionally gone Republican but which is undergoing some major demographic changes and is consistently polling as a dead heat this year. In addition, a popular Hispanic Attorney General is running for the U.S. Senate, which could help bring Democrats to the polls. There is a question on the ballot that, if it passes, would allocate the state’s electoral votes in proportion to the electoral vote. It is unclear whether that measure would actually result in the state’s electoral votes being cast that way, however, so the picture here is pretty convoluted. The two most recent polls, released 9/13, both have Bush with a one-point lead.
On average: Bush 46% Kerry 45% other/undecided 9%
Bottom Line: If Kerry holds the Gore states, plus wins New Hampshire, a win here would put him over the top. The campaigns appear to just now be waking up to the fact that Colorado is really close and apparently is going to stay close.
4. Arkansas (6 EV): This state has been close for months, and Bush received very little convention bounce. In two polls released 9/17, Bush leads one (ARG) and the candidates are tied in the other (Zobgy).
On average: Bush 47.5% Kerry 46% other/undecided 6.5%
Bottom Line: Could Bill Clinton and other state Democrats help Kerry get over the hump here? It would be ironic if Kerry squeezed into the White House by taking New Hampshire and Arkansas, rather than any of the huge Battleground states that have been getting all the attention and money thus far.
5. Ohio (20 EV): One of the Big Three Bush states targeted by Kerry, along with Florida and Missouri. Bush has led consistently here since mid-August, but in four polls released between 9/15 and 9/22, he leads by an average of only three points.
On average: Bush 48.5% Kerry 45.5% other/undecided 6%
Bottom Line: Bush is ahead but Kerry could still win here. He has shown some resiliency, and appears to not be giving up on the state.
6. Nevada (5 EV): Not really considered a swing state coming into the campaign, but has been close, and Democrats are benefiting from demographic changes. In three polls released between 9/13 and 9/21, Bush leads all three but by well within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 49.3% Kerry 46.7% other/undecided 4%
Bottom Line: I would expect Bush to pull this one out. There aren’t as many undecideds, and Bush is close to 50%.
7. Missouri (11 EV): One of the Big Three Bush states targeted by Kerry, along with Florida and Ohio, Missouri appears to be heading Bush’s way since he opened up a lead in mid-August. Two polls released between 9/17 and 9/19 show Bush leading, albeit within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 51% Kerry 45% other/undecided 4%
Bottom Line: Bush is probably headed for victory here. He is polling above 50% and there aren’t that many undecideds.
Executive Summary:
1. Kerry is currently trailing in two Gore states -- Wisconsin (10 EV) and Iowa (7) -- both of which he needs to win unless he wins Florida.
2. Kerry’s best shot to win this election is Florida (27), because he could afford to drop Wisconsin and Iowa and still win.
3. Alternatively, Kerry needs to hold all the Gore states, then pick off some combination of New Hampshire, Colorado, and Arkansas to win.
4. Kerry should still fight in Ohio, though, because he’s within striking distance there and a win would give him considerably more flexibility.
5. There seems to be ample reason to downplay Missouri and Nevada, and to emphasize Arkansas and Colorado, while also tending to New Hampshire, where Kerry's lead is narrower than it has been all year.
Gore States where Kerry is vulnerable:
1. Wisconsin (10 EV): Bush leads in four of six polls released between 9/13 and 9/21, including the earliest (Strategic Vision) and the latest (Badger State). In the latter, Bush leads by an implausible 52%-38%. Kerry leads in one poll (Zobgy) and the candidates were tied in the other (American Research Group). All polls, except the Badger State are within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 47.8% Kerry 44.2% undecided/other 8%
Bottom Line: Bush holds a narrow lead here (3.6 points even with the Badger State poll included), but remains below 50%, which is usually a sign of trouble for an incumbent this late in the game, and there are 8% still apparently undecided or voting for some other candidate.
2. Iowa (7 EV): Bush leads in six of seven polls released between 9/14 and 9/23, including the earliest (Rasmussen) and the latest (Survey USA). There are no real outliers among the seven polls, and all are within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 47.9% Kerry 45.7 undecided/other 6.4%
Bottom Line: Bush holds a narrow lead (averaging 2.2 points), but the same analysis holds here as in Wisconsin. Kerry is a bit closer, but there are fewer undecideds.
3. Pennsylvania (21 EV): In four polls released between 9/15 and 9/22, Kerry leads them all.
On average: Kerry 48.5% Bush 46% undecided/other 5.5%
Bottom Line: After an increase in Bush support here, Kerry seems to have stabilized and remains in the lead.
4. Oregon (7 EV): Kerry leads in two of three polls released between 9/13 and 9/22, although Bush leads in the most recent (Survey USA). Zogby has Kerry leading by 12 points, outside the margin of error.
On average: Kerry 49.3% Bush 45% undecided/other 5.7%
Bottom Line: Oregon has gotten closer, but Kerry is in good shape at this point.
5. Maine (4 EV): In three polls released between 9/9 and 9/23, the candidates each lead in one and they are tied in the third. Bush, however, holds a one-point lead in the latest (Survey USA) poll.
On average: Kerry 45.7% Bush 44.7 undecided/other 9.6%
Bottom Line: Maine appears to have gotten very close, but there isn’t a lot of polling here, and with nearly 10 percent still undecided, I would expect Kerry to pull this one out.
6. Maryland (10 EV): In two polls released between 9/17 and 9/20, Bush led in one (Survey USA) and the candidates were tied in the other (Mason-Dixon).
On average: Bush 47.5% Kerry 45.5% undecided/other 7%
Bottom Line: Not a lot of polling here, but it’s hard to argue with two recent polls. That said, the same general analysis applies here – Bush under 50%, undecideds should break for Kerry. But, frankly, if Kerry can’t win in Maryland, there are going to be several other Blue States that he loses, too.
7. New Jersey (15 EV): Each candidate leads in one of the two polls released between 9/15 and 9/17.
On average: Bush 46% Kerry 46% undecided/other 8%
Bottom Line: The state’s gubernatorial scandal involving a Democrat and the proximity to the GOP convention in New York are said to be two factors that may be making New Jersey close. Kerry should be able to win back enough to take this state. Like Maryland, if he loses New Jersey he’s going to be losing a lot of Blue States.
OK? So, let’s say Kerry holds the Gore states, where does he get the additional ten electoral votes to get him to 270?
Bush-2000 States where Bush is vulnerable:
1. Florida (27 EV): This is the big kahuna, and it couldn’t be closer. In four polls released between 9/20 and 9/22, the candidates are within two points of each other.
On average: Bush 47.3% Kerry 46.8% undecided/other 5.9%
Bottom Line: If Kerry wins Florida, he wins. Even if Bush were to take Wisconsin and Iowa, a Kerry win in Florida would equal exactly 270 electoral votes! For Bush, Florida is necessary but not sufficient. He must also hold all but 10 EV-worth of the Red States.
2. New Hampshire (4 EV): In two polls released 9/17, Bush leads in one (ARG) and Kerry in the other (Zogby). Prior to that, Kerry has led in New Hampshire fairly consistently, and remember, Bush won the state in 2000 by less than the Nader vote.
On average: Kerry 46.5% Bush 46% undecided/other 7.5%
Bottom Line: The state looks very close once again, but next-door neighbor Kerry has an excellent shot at winning it.
3. Colorado (9 EV): This is a state that has traditionally gone Republican but which is undergoing some major demographic changes and is consistently polling as a dead heat this year. In addition, a popular Hispanic Attorney General is running for the U.S. Senate, which could help bring Democrats to the polls. There is a question on the ballot that, if it passes, would allocate the state’s electoral votes in proportion to the electoral vote. It is unclear whether that measure would actually result in the state’s electoral votes being cast that way, however, so the picture here is pretty convoluted. The two most recent polls, released 9/13, both have Bush with a one-point lead.
On average: Bush 46% Kerry 45% other/undecided 9%
Bottom Line: If Kerry holds the Gore states, plus wins New Hampshire, a win here would put him over the top. The campaigns appear to just now be waking up to the fact that Colorado is really close and apparently is going to stay close.
4. Arkansas (6 EV): This state has been close for months, and Bush received very little convention bounce. In two polls released 9/17, Bush leads one (ARG) and the candidates are tied in the other (Zobgy).
On average: Bush 47.5% Kerry 46% other/undecided 6.5%
Bottom Line: Could Bill Clinton and other state Democrats help Kerry get over the hump here? It would be ironic if Kerry squeezed into the White House by taking New Hampshire and Arkansas, rather than any of the huge Battleground states that have been getting all the attention and money thus far.
5. Ohio (20 EV): One of the Big Three Bush states targeted by Kerry, along with Florida and Missouri. Bush has led consistently here since mid-August, but in four polls released between 9/15 and 9/22, he leads by an average of only three points.
On average: Bush 48.5% Kerry 45.5% other/undecided 6%
Bottom Line: Bush is ahead but Kerry could still win here. He has shown some resiliency, and appears to not be giving up on the state.
6. Nevada (5 EV): Not really considered a swing state coming into the campaign, but has been close, and Democrats are benefiting from demographic changes. In three polls released between 9/13 and 9/21, Bush leads all three but by well within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 49.3% Kerry 46.7% other/undecided 4%
Bottom Line: I would expect Bush to pull this one out. There aren’t as many undecideds, and Bush is close to 50%.
7. Missouri (11 EV): One of the Big Three Bush states targeted by Kerry, along with Florida and Ohio, Missouri appears to be heading Bush’s way since he opened up a lead in mid-August. Two polls released between 9/17 and 9/19 show Bush leading, albeit within the margin of error.
On average: Bush 51% Kerry 45% other/undecided 4%
Bottom Line: Bush is probably headed for victory here. He is polling above 50% and there aren’t that many undecideds.
posted by JFH @ 12:22 PM
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