The Polls This Week: How Kerry gets to 270 – not easily, but doable.
Bush has forged a modest lead, but the basic shape of the electoral map hasn’t changed. Kerry must win all the Gore-2000 states, plus a Bush-2000 state or two totaling a mere 10 electoral votes. The first part of the equation is imminently doable, despite the fact that several Gore states are currently toss-ups, including apparently narrow Bush leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Where does Kerry go to find the 10 Bush votes from 2000? (He is likely to take New Hampshire’s four electoral votes, as he has led consistently there and Bush won in 2000 by less than the number of Nader votes. But that still leaves Kerry six electoral votes shy of the magic number.)
For most of the campaign, the answer has been Ohio, Missouri, and Florida.
Unfortunately for Kerry, Ohio and Missouri have been trending toward Bush, especially Missouri – which makes me wonder how things would look about now with Gephardt on the ticket. While there are signs that Kerry is lowering his emphasis on Missouri, Ohio is still in play, and if you look at the geography, it’s relatively easy to hit Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania almost simultaneously. West Virginia, a Bush-2000 state, would be a “nice-to-have” for Kerry, but would only deliver five more electoral votes.
The conventional wisdom is that Kerry must win Pennsylvania, which was a Gore state in 2000. I agree, more or less, although he could lose Pennsylvania, yet win Florida and New Hampshire to reach 270.
And so we come back to Florida and its 27 electoral votes as the key to this election. The two candidates have been neck and neck in the polls there, but the hurricane season has all but denied Bush his post-convention bounce in the state and the race has become frozen as Floridians recover from the storms. Despite the fact that Bush has made three post-hurricane visits to the state to “survey the damage,” neither candidate has been able to really campaign there lately. One wild card could be how well FEMA relief efforts go. There are a lot of people who need help and it’s always easy to blame FEMA for the glitches that almost inevitably occur.
Another, less likely, scenario for Kerry would be to hold all the Gore-2000 states, plus win New Hampshire, leaving him six electoral votes shy of 270, then swipe Colorado or Arkansas from Bush. Both are doable, but there are few signs thus far that Kerry is trying to bring this scenario to fruition.
As for those Gore-2000 states, if Bush cuts into any of them, it obviously hurts Kerry’s chances, but if Bush wins two Gore-2000 states, Kerry is done for. And right now, Bush has narrow leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
There is a wildcard in Colorado, where a ballot measure, if it passes, would require the state to cast its electoral votes in proportion to the overall vote. The way the race there is shaping up, the winning candidate, who would normally get all nine electoral votes, would likely get only five, with the loser getting the other four. Hmm…
If Kerry holds the Gore-2000 states, plus wins New Hampshire, that puts him at 264. Four more Colorado votes – or, for that matter – five, would still leave him shy of 270. Doh! He would still need to swipe another state, size wouldn’t matter, from Bush to win.
Check out www.electoral-vote.com for a pretty good compilation of state by state polls with commentary daily.
Where does Kerry go to find the 10 Bush votes from 2000? (He is likely to take New Hampshire’s four electoral votes, as he has led consistently there and Bush won in 2000 by less than the number of Nader votes. But that still leaves Kerry six electoral votes shy of the magic number.)
For most of the campaign, the answer has been Ohio, Missouri, and Florida.
Unfortunately for Kerry, Ohio and Missouri have been trending toward Bush, especially Missouri – which makes me wonder how things would look about now with Gephardt on the ticket. While there are signs that Kerry is lowering his emphasis on Missouri, Ohio is still in play, and if you look at the geography, it’s relatively easy to hit Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania almost simultaneously. West Virginia, a Bush-2000 state, would be a “nice-to-have” for Kerry, but would only deliver five more electoral votes.
The conventional wisdom is that Kerry must win Pennsylvania, which was a Gore state in 2000. I agree, more or less, although he could lose Pennsylvania, yet win Florida and New Hampshire to reach 270.
And so we come back to Florida and its 27 electoral votes as the key to this election. The two candidates have been neck and neck in the polls there, but the hurricane season has all but denied Bush his post-convention bounce in the state and the race has become frozen as Floridians recover from the storms. Despite the fact that Bush has made three post-hurricane visits to the state to “survey the damage,” neither candidate has been able to really campaign there lately. One wild card could be how well FEMA relief efforts go. There are a lot of people who need help and it’s always easy to blame FEMA for the glitches that almost inevitably occur.
Another, less likely, scenario for Kerry would be to hold all the Gore-2000 states, plus win New Hampshire, leaving him six electoral votes shy of 270, then swipe Colorado or Arkansas from Bush. Both are doable, but there are few signs thus far that Kerry is trying to bring this scenario to fruition.
As for those Gore-2000 states, if Bush cuts into any of them, it obviously hurts Kerry’s chances, but if Bush wins two Gore-2000 states, Kerry is done for. And right now, Bush has narrow leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
There is a wildcard in Colorado, where a ballot measure, if it passes, would require the state to cast its electoral votes in proportion to the overall vote. The way the race there is shaping up, the winning candidate, who would normally get all nine electoral votes, would likely get only five, with the loser getting the other four. Hmm…
If Kerry holds the Gore-2000 states, plus wins New Hampshire, that puts him at 264. Four more Colorado votes – or, for that matter – five, would still leave him shy of 270. Doh! He would still need to swipe another state, size wouldn’t matter, from Bush to win.
Check out www.electoral-vote.com for a pretty good compilation of state by state polls with commentary daily.
posted by JFH @ 7:55 AM
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