Polls, polls, polls
I still think the formula for Kerry is: Gore states + 10, and Kerry gets the ten by winning Ohio OR Florida OR some combination of New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and Arkansas.
After the debates, Kerry appears to be on his way to holding the Gore states. Pennsylvania and Minnesota appear to have moved back to Kerry, while Iowa and Wisconsin are about to get back to blue. In the latter two, Kerry is either tied or two points behind in most polls, and that's a trend in his direction over the last couple of weeks.
At this point, Bush is either trailing in the states that Kerry needs to take away, or not far enough ahead to be a likely winner on election day in any of them. If an incumbent is two points or less ahead among likely voters in the final pre-election polls, (s)he is in trouble on election day, as undecideds typically break against incumbents decisively. If turnout is heavy, meaning more "unlikely" voters go to the polls, the Democrat typically does better. All indications are that turnout will be heavy this year.
The two latest Florida polls have Kerry leading in one that's from a non-partisan firm, and Bush leading in one that's from a Republican firm. Both are polls of likely voters. Because of the hurricanes, likely voters may be the better group to look at, because many registered voters may end up not turning out because they are attending to more immediate concerns. Still, Bush is, at best, only a couple of points ahead, and that's if you believe only the Republican pollster.
In Ohio, more mixed results over the past few days, but even the Republican poll that shows the biggest Bush lead of six points among likely voters, also shows a trend toward Kerry; Bush's lead was ten points prior to the debates. Another non-partisan (but push-button phone) poll has Bush up by only two at 49%, while a third non-partisan poll done for the Chicago Tribune has Kerry up four.
Kerry probably has New Hampshire's four EVs, as he either leads or is tied with Bush in all four polls taken since October 4. Polling ties go to Kerry, based on the undecideds rule.
In two polls taken in October in Nevada, each candidate leads one.
By themselves, no one cares about New Hampshire and Nevada because the two states only total 9 EVs, so Kerry would need another Bush state, such as Colorado, with 9 EVs. Gallup and Zogby both show the candidates neck and neck, although the push-button phone pollster Survey USA has Bush up eight. If that's true, Bush should hold Colorado, but lots of evidence there that Kerry is doing well, as is Senate candidate Ken Salazar in his race against Peter Coors.
[Of course, Kerry could win by losing Colorado if the state question there passes requiring Colorado to apportion its EVs based on popular vote. That would hand Kerry 4 EVs and possibly the election, at least until SCOTUS gets involved.]
Arkansas seems to be either tied or Bush up by six, with most observers believing the latter. But with a popular Democrat up for reelection in the Senate and the possibility that the Big Dog might come to the state if his heart heals up in time, there is hope here for Kerry.
OK, that may not seem like a lot for Kerry to hang his hat on, beyond Ohio and Florida, so let's put Missouri back on the board. Bush had opened up a consistent six point lead there before the debates, and it looked like the Dems might concede the state, but two recent polls show Bush leading by only about two points, back in the danger zone for an incumbent.
On the other hand, Charlie Cook argues that we should be looking at national polls, and if one candidate wins by more than a percentage point nationally, chances are that candidate will with the Electoral College. However, if the candidates are within a percentage point, the outcome will basically be left to chance, and all this prognosticating about this state or that is a waste of time:
After the debates, Kerry appears to be on his way to holding the Gore states. Pennsylvania and Minnesota appear to have moved back to Kerry, while Iowa and Wisconsin are about to get back to blue. In the latter two, Kerry is either tied or two points behind in most polls, and that's a trend in his direction over the last couple of weeks.
At this point, Bush is either trailing in the states that Kerry needs to take away, or not far enough ahead to be a likely winner on election day in any of them. If an incumbent is two points or less ahead among likely voters in the final pre-election polls, (s)he is in trouble on election day, as undecideds typically break against incumbents decisively. If turnout is heavy, meaning more "unlikely" voters go to the polls, the Democrat typically does better. All indications are that turnout will be heavy this year.
The two latest Florida polls have Kerry leading in one that's from a non-partisan firm, and Bush leading in one that's from a Republican firm. Both are polls of likely voters. Because of the hurricanes, likely voters may be the better group to look at, because many registered voters may end up not turning out because they are attending to more immediate concerns. Still, Bush is, at best, only a couple of points ahead, and that's if you believe only the Republican pollster.
In Ohio, more mixed results over the past few days, but even the Republican poll that shows the biggest Bush lead of six points among likely voters, also shows a trend toward Kerry; Bush's lead was ten points prior to the debates. Another non-partisan (but push-button phone) poll has Bush up by only two at 49%, while a third non-partisan poll done for the Chicago Tribune has Kerry up four.
Kerry probably has New Hampshire's four EVs, as he either leads or is tied with Bush in all four polls taken since October 4. Polling ties go to Kerry, based on the undecideds rule.
In two polls taken in October in Nevada, each candidate leads one.
By themselves, no one cares about New Hampshire and Nevada because the two states only total 9 EVs, so Kerry would need another Bush state, such as Colorado, with 9 EVs. Gallup and Zogby both show the candidates neck and neck, although the push-button phone pollster Survey USA has Bush up eight. If that's true, Bush should hold Colorado, but lots of evidence there that Kerry is doing well, as is Senate candidate Ken Salazar in his race against Peter Coors.
[Of course, Kerry could win by losing Colorado if the state question there passes requiring Colorado to apportion its EVs based on popular vote. That would hand Kerry 4 EVs and possibly the election, at least until SCOTUS gets involved.]
Arkansas seems to be either tied or Bush up by six, with most observers believing the latter. But with a popular Democrat up for reelection in the Senate and the possibility that the Big Dog might come to the state if his heart heals up in time, there is hope here for Kerry.
OK, that may not seem like a lot for Kerry to hang his hat on, beyond Ohio and Florida, so let's put Missouri back on the board. Bush had opened up a consistent six point lead there before the debates, and it looked like the Dems might concede the state, but two recent polls show Bush leading by only about two points, back in the danger zone for an incumbent.
On the other hand, Charlie Cook argues that we should be looking at national polls, and if one candidate wins by more than a percentage point nationally, chances are that candidate will with the Electoral College. However, if the candidates are within a percentage point, the outcome will basically be left to chance, and all this prognosticating about this state or that is a waste of time:
If the margin in this race is more than one percentage point, the Electoral College vote won't matter, if it is inside of one percent, then there are too many states that are too close and the state level polling, even the good ones, won't be of much use, much less these three-dollar state polls that are flying over the internet.
posted by JFH @ 11:33 PM
<< Home