The Polls: Hotline sees definite Kerry trend
The Hotline's state-by-state polling analysis has Kerry in the lead for the first time in quite a while, primarily because a new American Research Group poll of Ohio voters shows Kerry's first lead in the state in two months.
Remember, Kerry needs to win all the Gore states (260 electoral votes), plus pick up ten electoral votes from the Bush-2000 states. With Pennsylvania back in the fold according to the latest polls, and Wisconsin and Iowa trending that way, Kerry appears poised to keep the Gore states. That leaves Florida OR Ohio as the key Bush-2000 states Kerry needs to carry to put him over the top, and he certainly seems to be trending in the right direction in both states. (Kerry seems likely to carry New Hampshire, which narrowly went to Bush in 2000, but it has only four electoral votes.)
OHIO
An American Research Group poll conducted 10/4-6 surveyed 600 likely voters. Margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/7). For this poll, the likely voter sample was made up of 38%R, 38%D, 24%I/Other. In '00, the state's electorate broke down 37%R, 38%D, 26%I/Other.
Likely Voters
Kerry 48%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%
Undecided 4%
Independent likely voters
Kerry 51%
Bush 43%
Nader 2%
Und 4%
Previous poll 9/20
Kerry 46%
Bush 48%
Nader 1%
Und 5%
WISCONSIN
A Dem poll for Kerry and a GOP poll for Bush, but both show a tighter race.
A Lake Snell Perry (D) poll conducted 10/3-5 for ACT surveyed 600 likely voters. Margin of error +/- 4% (Hotline sources).
Kerry 48%
Bush 44%
Nader 1%
Undec 7%
A Moore Information (R) poll conducted 10/5-6 for their own consumption surveyed 500 likely voters. Margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/7). For this poll, the voter sample was made up of 38%R, 39%D, 22%I/Other; In '00, the state's electorate broke down 32%R, 37%D, 31%I/Other.
-----Now
Bush 47%
Kerry 45
Undec/Oth 8
-----9/22
Bush 48%
Kerry 45%
Undec/Oth 7%
FLORIDA
Four new polls. Two with Kerry leading; two with Bush leading.
Mason-Dixon --- 10/4-5 +/-4
Bush 48%
Kerry 44
Quinnipiac --- 10/1-5 +/-3
Bush 51%
Kerry 44%
American Research Group --- 10/2-5 +/-4
Bush 45%
Kerry 47%
Hamilton Beattie (D) --- 10/1-4 +/-3.5
Bush 47%
Kerry 49%
Remember, Kerry needs to win all the Gore states (260 electoral votes), plus pick up ten electoral votes from the Bush-2000 states. With Pennsylvania back in the fold according to the latest polls, and Wisconsin and Iowa trending that way, Kerry appears poised to keep the Gore states. That leaves Florida OR Ohio as the key Bush-2000 states Kerry needs to carry to put him over the top, and he certainly seems to be trending in the right direction in both states. (Kerry seems likely to carry New Hampshire, which narrowly went to Bush in 2000, but it has only four electoral votes.)
OHIO
An American Research Group poll conducted 10/4-6 surveyed 600 likely voters. Margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/7). For this poll, the likely voter sample was made up of 38%R, 38%D, 24%I/Other. In '00, the state's electorate broke down 37%R, 38%D, 26%I/Other.
Likely Voters
Kerry 48%
Bush 47%
Nader 1%
Undecided 4%
Independent likely voters
Kerry 51%
Bush 43%
Nader 2%
Und 4%
Previous poll 9/20
Kerry 46%
Bush 48%
Nader 1%
Und 5%
WISCONSIN
A Dem poll for Kerry and a GOP poll for Bush, but both show a tighter race.
A Lake Snell Perry (D) poll conducted 10/3-5 for ACT surveyed 600 likely voters. Margin of error +/- 4% (Hotline sources).
Kerry 48%
Bush 44%
Nader 1%
Undec 7%
A Moore Information (R) poll conducted 10/5-6 for their own consumption surveyed 500 likely voters. Margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/7). For this poll, the voter sample was made up of 38%R, 39%D, 22%I/Other; In '00, the state's electorate broke down 32%R, 37%D, 31%I/Other.
-----Now
Bush 47%
Kerry 45
Undec/Oth 8
-----9/22
Bush 48%
Kerry 45%
Undec/Oth 7%
FLORIDA
Four new polls. Two with Kerry leading; two with Bush leading.
Mason-Dixon --- 10/4-5 +/-4
Bush 48%
Kerry 44
Quinnipiac --- 10/1-5 +/-3
Bush 51%
Kerry 44%
American Research Group --- 10/2-5 +/-4
Bush 45%
Kerry 47%
Hamilton Beattie (D) --- 10/1-4 +/-3.5
Bush 47%
Kerry 49%
posted by JFH @ 12:08 PM
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