The Big Three: Missouri, Ohio, and Florida
No reason to pay any attention at all to national polling numbers this year. They mean nothing in an election to be decided by a few swing states. But what's a swing state and what isn't? The list keeps expanding and contracting. Washington, Oregon, and New Hampshire were on everyone's list at the beginning of the campaign, but all seem pretty safe for Kerry. On the other hand, Colorado and Arizona have moved from pretty safe for Bush into swing state territory.
Bottom line: you don't really need to keep track of all the swing states. The election will come down to three states: Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. Kerry needs one of the three to win; Bush needs a sweep.
Here's how the numbers work. Give Kerry every state that Gore won in 2000, plus New Hampshire, where Bush won by less than the number of Nader votes. Kerry has consistently led in New Hampshire and all the Gore states so far, although there is no doubt that some, like Wisconsin and Iowa, are very close. Those states will give Kerry 264 electoral votes, six short of election.
Bush starts with a base of 151 solid red-state electoral votes. He has to win a number of states that he took in 2000 that remain close at this point in the campaign: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia. This looks like a tall order inasmuch as the candidates appear to be deadlocked in all of these states except for North Carolina, where Bush holds a clear but narrow lead. But so long as the current dynamic of the campaign remains intact, it's hard to see Bush losing any of these states. That would give Bush 216 electoral votes.
And that brings us to Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. If Bush takes them all, he gets past 270. If Kerry wins one, he goes over the top. In Ohio, Bush seems to be leading, and is pushing the margin of error. In Missouri, the two candidates have been practically deadlocked throughout the summer. In Florida, same thing. Neither candidate has had a lead outside the margin of error in any trial heat.
Now to alternate scenarios. Two of the Democratic swing states that Bush has the best chance to win in are Iowa and Wisconsin. If he takes those two states, he almost surely would also win Missouri. If Bush won these two states in addition to Missouri, Ohio wouldn't matter, but Bush would need Florida to win the election.
Or perhaps Bush comes back to win Pennsylvania. If he did that, he almost surely would also win Ohio. In this scenario, Missouri wouldn't matter, but Bush would still need Florida.
As for Kerry, if he were to pull off a "Western Swing" and win either Arizona or Colorado, the election could be over even if he didn't win any of the Big Three. Or if Kerry could pull off an upset in Arkansas or Tennessee, he wins without the Big Three.
And then there is the deadlock scenario. Give Bush all of the Big Three, but give Kerry either Nevada or West Virginia's five electoral votes. The result: 269-269.
A tie would throw the contest into the newly elected House of Representatives on January 5. Each state delegation gets one vote. Currently, Republicans control 30 state delegations, Democrats 16, and four are tied. The makeup of the new House will likely not change much, so a tie favors Bush.
Check out the LA Times interactive electoral college feature and play with your own scenarios.
Check out swing state polling at www.realclearpolitics.com and www.electoral-vote.com. The Wall Street Journal (subscribers only) and Newsweek have swing state features using various polling results.
MOST RECENT BIG THREE POLLS:
Florida:
Kerry 47
Bush 49
Nader 2
Und 2
(Aug. 24, 500 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4%)
www.Rasmussenreports.com
Missouri:
Kerry 44
Bush 46
other 1
Und 9
(Aug. 24, 580 registered voters, moe +/-4%)
http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll27aug27,1,1350122.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Ohio:
Kerry 44
Bush 49
other 1
Und 6
(Aug. 24, 507 registered votes, moe +/-4%)
http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll27aug27,1,1350122.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Bottom line: you don't really need to keep track of all the swing states. The election will come down to three states: Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. Kerry needs one of the three to win; Bush needs a sweep.
Here's how the numbers work. Give Kerry every state that Gore won in 2000, plus New Hampshire, where Bush won by less than the number of Nader votes. Kerry has consistently led in New Hampshire and all the Gore states so far, although there is no doubt that some, like Wisconsin and Iowa, are very close. Those states will give Kerry 264 electoral votes, six short of election.
Bush starts with a base of 151 solid red-state electoral votes. He has to win a number of states that he took in 2000 that remain close at this point in the campaign: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia. This looks like a tall order inasmuch as the candidates appear to be deadlocked in all of these states except for North Carolina, where Bush holds a clear but narrow lead. But so long as the current dynamic of the campaign remains intact, it's hard to see Bush losing any of these states. That would give Bush 216 electoral votes.
And that brings us to Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. If Bush takes them all, he gets past 270. If Kerry wins one, he goes over the top. In Ohio, Bush seems to be leading, and is pushing the margin of error. In Missouri, the two candidates have been practically deadlocked throughout the summer. In Florida, same thing. Neither candidate has had a lead outside the margin of error in any trial heat.
Now to alternate scenarios. Two of the Democratic swing states that Bush has the best chance to win in are Iowa and Wisconsin. If he takes those two states, he almost surely would also win Missouri. If Bush won these two states in addition to Missouri, Ohio wouldn't matter, but Bush would need Florida to win the election.
Or perhaps Bush comes back to win Pennsylvania. If he did that, he almost surely would also win Ohio. In this scenario, Missouri wouldn't matter, but Bush would still need Florida.
As for Kerry, if he were to pull off a "Western Swing" and win either Arizona or Colorado, the election could be over even if he didn't win any of the Big Three. Or if Kerry could pull off an upset in Arkansas or Tennessee, he wins without the Big Three.
And then there is the deadlock scenario. Give Bush all of the Big Three, but give Kerry either Nevada or West Virginia's five electoral votes. The result: 269-269.
A tie would throw the contest into the newly elected House of Representatives on January 5. Each state delegation gets one vote. Currently, Republicans control 30 state delegations, Democrats 16, and four are tied. The makeup of the new House will likely not change much, so a tie favors Bush.
Check out the LA Times interactive electoral college feature and play with your own scenarios.
Check out swing state polling at www.realclearpolitics.com and www.electoral-vote.com. The Wall Street Journal (subscribers only) and Newsweek have swing state features using various polling results.
MOST RECENT BIG THREE POLLS:
Florida:
Kerry 47
Bush 49
Nader 2
Und 2
(Aug. 24, 500 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4%)
www.Rasmussenreports.com
Missouri:
Kerry 44
Bush 46
other 1
Und 9
(Aug. 24, 580 registered voters, moe +/-4%)
http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll27aug27,1,1350122.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Ohio:
Kerry 44
Bush 49
other 1
Und 6
(Aug. 24, 507 registered votes, moe +/-4%)
http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll27aug27,1,1350122.story?coll=la-home-headlines
posted by JFH @ 7:46 AM
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